Test your forecasting skills against real historical sports, culture, and market inflection points. Assign your probability, lock in your prediction, evaluate your Brier score, and build genuine probability calibration over time.
Market Mimic isn't trivia—it's a flight simulator for probabilistic thinking.
Market Mimic uses the quadratic Brier score to measure accuracy:
Where p is your probability forecast (0.0 to 1.0) and o is the outcome (1 for Yes, 0 for No). Lower is better: 0.00 is perfect prescience, 0.25 is random guessing (50/50), and 1.00 is total miscalibration.
Once you lock in your forecast for the day, your prediction cannot be edited. Scenarios are presented strictly with information available as of the listed date.
This eliminates hindsight bias ("I knew it all along") and forces you to confront the true uncertainty present at historical decision points.
Our dataset contains 200 curated scenarios focused heavily on sports, entertainment, box office, music, gaming, and internet culture spanning 2016–2026:
Your answers, streak, average Brier score, and accuracy metrics are saved 100% locally in your browser.
No sign-up, no tracking, and zero data sent to external servers. Over weeks of play, your average Brier score reveals whether your subjective confidence matches objective outcomes.
Discuss daily scenario reasoning, compare calibration scores, and follow market analysis with the community on X.
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